Disease Modelling System dynamics is largely concerned with designing new futures, rather than projecting past structures and performance into the future. As such it provides a way of modelling new and innovative approaches to disease management. The approach here is to model the dynamic progression of different diseases and to quantify how such progression will reduce the quality of life for any cohort of sufferers without treatment. It is then possible to superimpose on this progression the effects of many different radical treatment regimes and to assess how effective these might be. The Symmetric consulting team are working with teams of multi-agency, clinical and managerial experts to convert existing national guidelines and frameworks of best clinical practice for a number of disease services into system dynamics models. This approach helps to improve the rigour of definition of new patient pathways and facilitates communication for implementation. The unique approach is to combine clinical innovations with their economic and resource allocation implications. The models require a variety of data rarely previously accumulated. These data items include: the proportions of patients expected to use/be directed to each pathway the capacities of each pathway and resultant wait times. the effectiveness of drug treatments the degree of drug conformity the proportion of people moving to different states of the disease progression after different treatments costs overall performance measures The resultant models provide free-standing self-contained, interactive tools to allow users to input their own data and to experiment with their own policies for: treatment regimes screening policies investments in capacities rerouting of patients by/to different agencies whole system benefits of new radical drug therapies resource allocations The interaction of users with this type of model is being enhanced by the establishment of collaborative groups of users. This approach facilitates real-time testing of policies and the evaluation of models for their ability to create dynamic understanding, action learning and shifts in mental models from current world to future centric.

modelling example Whole System Commissioning Template This model was constructed to explore the dynamics of delayed hospital discharges and the implications of the proposal by the government that social services reimburse health for delays more & downloads   modelling resources view all resources Dynamic Modelling Introduction Download a brief introduction to Dynamic Modelling Free ithink model player Visit the isee systems website to download your free copy of the ithink player Sample Models Download an example of modelling in process design Download an example of modelling spending decisions Download a paper discussing the above model Note: you will need ithink or the ithink player to view these files System Dynamics Society website Visit the System Dynamics Society website

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